Supply Surplus Report Help
General

An important enabler for allowing the market to respond to supply surplus conditions on its own without AESO intervention is information. This report is intended to provide the market with an indication of supply surplus events prior to real time so that participants can respond to market signals and adjust accordingly. Supply surplus events occur when the system marginal price (SMP) = $0/MWh.

 
Report Calculation

The calculation of this report is based on a 6 hour ahead forecast of SMPs which are used for forecasting pool price. These SMPs are forecast for each 10 minute clock period (six forecast SMPs per hour ending). If the forecasted SMP is $0/MWh a supply surplus event is forecasted for that 10 minute clock period. If all six SMPs are forecast to be $0/MWh then that settlement interval is forecasted to settle at $0/MWh.

The report provides the following indicators for the next six hours:
2: All of the SMPs forecasted for the hour ending are forecasted to be greater than $0/MWh.
1: At least one (but not all) of the forecasted SMPs for the hour ending are forecasted to be equal to $0/MWh meaning pool price is forecasted to settle at greater than $0.
0: All six of the SMPs forecasted for the hour ending are forecasted to be equal to $0/MWh meaning that pool price is forecasted to settle at $0.

 
Available Formats
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Timing of Updates
This report is updated every 5 minutes