The 24 Month Supply and Demand Forecast depicts the Alberta Interconnected Electric System's ability to meet the demand for electricity over the next two years. The AESO recognizes the potential market impacts of generation outages and the need to provide market participants timely and appropriately comprehensive outage information. All outage information is provided in aggregate and individual unit outages are confidential.
ISO Rule 202.6 Adequacy of Supply requires the AESO to provide a supply and demand forecast using the peak demand hour for every day for the next successive two year period.
Components of 24 Month Supply and Demand Forecast
Total Expected Internal Supply: indicates the expected availability of intra-Alberta generation after taking into account scheduled outages and derates, less a factor for anticipated generating unit derates (300 MW), plus assumed wind output (145 MW).
Import Capacity from BC, SK and MATL: indicates the expected maximum import available transfer capability (ATC) of the British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Montana interties, taking into account limitations caused by outages on the Alberta grid and system conditions in BC, Saskatchewan and Montana in which AB's Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM) is increased. Refer to ISO Rules, Part 200, Section 203.6 and Part 300, Section 303.1 for details of the intertie limits. Limitations to ATC caused by system conditions in BC, Saskatchewan and Montana are excluded.
AIL Load + Operating Reserves: indicates the peak forecast load (AIL) for each day (the peak hour), less load outages (refer to ISO Rule 306.3), less price responsive load (200 MW), less Demand Opportunity Service (20 MW), plus assumed Operating Reserve as per ARS BAL-002-WECC-AB-2.
Surplus: equals Total Expected Internal Supply plus Import Capacity from BC, SK and MATL less AIL Load + Operating Reserves.
Please contact firstname.lastname@example.org with questions or concerns regarding this forecast.
Please note the outage values from January 1, 2022 onwards is not yet reflective of the decreased maximum capability of Assets Keephills 1 and Sundance 4 as per the AESO's notification. The AESO is working to update IT systems to incorporate these future changes.