The 24 Month Supply and Demand Forecast depicts the Alberta Interconnected Electric System’s ability to meet the demand for electricity over the next two years. The AESO recognizes the potential market impacts of generation outages and the need to provide market participants timely and appropriately comprehensive outage information. All outage information is provided in aggregate and individual unit outages are confidential.

ISO Rule 5 - Reliability Assessment and Scheduled Generator Outage Cancellation, effective October 28, 2010, requires the AESO to provide a supply and demand forecast using the peak demand hour for every day for the next successive two year period.

Components of 24 Month Supply and Demand Forecast

Total Expected Internal Supply: indicates the expected availability of intra-Alberta generation after taking into account scheduled outages and derates, less a factor for anticipated generating unit derates (300 MW), plus assumed wind output (145 MW).

Import Capacity from BC and SK: indicates the expected maximum import available transfer capability (ATC) of both the British Columbia and Saskatchewan interties, taking into account limitations caused by outages on the Alberta grid and system conditions in BC and Saskatchewan. Refer to OPP 304 (Tables 1, 2 and 3) and ISO Rules, Part 300 for details of the BC intertie limits. Refer to Long Term Critical Outages and Approved Outages for all tentatively scheduled BC Hydro and Sask Power outages.

AIL Load + Operating Reserves: indicates the peak forecast load (AIL) for each day (the peak hour), less load outages (refer to ISO Rule 10), less price responsive load (200 MW), less Demand Opportunity Service (20 MW), plus assumed Operating Reserve for that hour (400 MW).

Surplus: equals Total Expected Internal Supply plus Import Capacity from BC and SK less AIL Load + Operating Reserves.

Please contact ops.coordination@aeso.ca with questions or concerns regarding this forecast.